IDC: chip shortage will end by mid-2022, and oversupply in 2023

Specialists of the analytical company IDC prepared the latest forecast related to the semiconductor market.

According to analysts, by the end of 2021, the semiconductor market will grow by 17.3% year-on-year. For comparison, at the end of 2020, global semiconductor supplies increased by 10.8%.

IDC: chip shortage will end by mid-2022, and oversupply in 2023

IDC notes that now production facilities are loaded to capacity and cannot cope with the demand for certain types of products – for example, microcircuits for the automotive industry. At the same time, IDC notes an improvement in the situation in certain segments and predicts that by the middle of 2022 the situation on the semiconductor product market will completely normalize (production will catch up with demand), and in 2023, when new lines start working, there is a high probability of an oversupply problem.

Projected revenue growth for different semiconductor categories:

  • 5G chips – + 128%;
  • mobile phones in general – + 28.5%;
  • game consoles – + 34%;
  • laptops – + 11.8%;
  • smart home appliances – + 20%;
  • wearable devices – + 21%;
  • automotive chips – + 22.8%;
  • server hardware – + 24.6%.
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According to IDC, 5G semiconductor revenues will increase by 128%, with total mobile phone semiconductors expected to grow by 28.5%. Game consoles, smart home, and wearables will grow + 34%, 20%, 21% respectively. Automotive semiconductor revenues will also increase by 22.8% as shortages are mitigated by year end. Notebook semiconductor revenues will grow by 11.8%, while X86 Server semi revenues will increase by 24.6%.

According to the forecast of analysts IDC, by 2025 the volume of the global semiconductor market will reach 600 billion dollars with an average annual growth of 5.3%.

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In early September, AMD’s CFO predicted an improvement in graphics card availability by 2022, while NVIDIA CEO Jen-Hsun Huang said in a recent report that the deficit would continue through 2023. Intel too do not expect normalization of supply and demand until 2023.

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